I was curious what actually looking at recent polls in the battleground states would show. I spend a fair amount of time reading Nate Silver’s 548 site, as I did four years ago. He’s built a model that incorporates polling data and some economic data, and attempts to project from present conditions to electoral college and popular vote results. Silver explains the components of his model, and that he’s developed it using Bayesian statistics, but you can’t really tell what is going on under the hood. He’s consistently shown Obama ahead, and recently has shown that Romney’s brief surge (or the polls’ reversion to the mean, you pick) has ceased and things have reached some sort of plateau: A very close race with Obama slightly ahead.
So I looked at some of the state polls. 41 states and the District of Columbia seem to me to be locked down: They’re pretty certain to go to either Romney or Obama unless something (completely unpredictable) happens in the next week or so and makes this a landslide.
Of the states that seem in play, in Florida, Romney has lead in three (Rassmusen, Susquehana, Angus Reid) and Obama in two (Grove, Gravis Marketing) and there’s one tie (Mellman). That is pretty close to toss up level, but I’ll give that to Romney.
In Wisconsin Obama has lead in every poll in Wisconsin since mid-August except one poll yesterday, where Rasmussen (which leans Republican) shows a tie. That suggests an Obama win there.
Give Romney North Carolina, although in the last week there’s been a tied poll and the other three are split 2 to Romney and 1 to Obama.
At that point, the electoral college vote is Obama 247 and Romney 235, with 56 votes in play. Obama needs 23 of them and Romney needs 35 of them.
That leaves Colorado (9 votes) , Iowa (6 votes), Nevada (6 votes) , New Hampshire (4 votes), Ohio (18 votes), and Virginia (13 votes).
It seems clear from the polls that Obama has the advantage in Colorado, Ohio, and Nevada, which would give him 33 votes and a clear electoral win. If Obama gets Ohio, Romney has to take away both Colorado and Nevada, plus both Virginia and Iowa, to win. If Romney takes Ohio, Obama is still short 8 votes with Colorado and Nevada.
Here’s why it seems Obama has the advantage in Colorado, Ohio, and Nevada.
Colorado 9 electoral votes. Advantage: Obama
Obama has lead in three of the four most recent polls, with the fourth showing a tie. Romney leads in the earliest poll in the batch, from 10/21 and from Rasmussen.
Recent polls:
10/25
PPP (D leaning) Obama 49 Romney 46
Purple Strategies Obama 47 Romney 46
10/24
Grove Obama 46 Romney 43
Keating Research Obama 48 Romney 45
NBC Marist tie at 48
10/21
Rasmussen (R leaning) Obama 46 Romney 50
Ohio 18 electoral votes. Advantage: Obama
Obama is leading in 9 polls, including the three most recent, Romney is leading in none, and four show a tie. If Obama wins this one, he needs to find 15 somewhere else from the remaining 43.
Recent Polls:
10/25
CNN/Opinion Research Obama 48 Romney 44
Purple Strategies Obama 46 Romney 44
American Research Group Obama 49 Obama 47
10/23
Rasmussen (R leaning) tie at 48
Lake Research Partners Obama 46 Romney 44
Time / SRBI Obama 49 Romney 44
10/22
SurveyUSA Obama 47 Romney 44
10/21
Suffolk tie at 44
10/20
Angus Reid tie at 45
Quinnipiac Obama 50 Romney 45
PPP (d leaning) Obama 50 Romney 45
PPP Obama 49 Obama 48
Gravis Marketing tie at 47
Nevada 6 electoral votes Advantage Obama
Obama has lead in all polls in the last week, and only one poll in the last month (on 10/9) has shown a Romney lead.
Recent Polls
10/24
NBC/Marist Obama 50 Romney 47
Gravis Marketing Obama 50 Romney 49
PPP (leans D) Obama 49 Romney 47
10/23
Rasmussen (leans R) Obama 50 Romney 48
10/22
American Research Group Obama 49 Romney 47
That leaves Iowa, New Hampshire, and Virginia.
It looks like a slight edge for Obama in Iowa and New Hampshire. Those two are ten votes.
Iowa 6 electoral votes
Obama has the slight edge here, leading in the two most recent polls then tied with a split result in the polls a week out.
Recent Polls
10/24
PPP (leans D) Obama 49 Romney 47
Gravis Marketing Obama 50 Romney 46
10/21
Rassmussen (leans R) tie at 48
10/19
PPP (leans D) Obama 48 Romney 49
PPP (leans D) Obama 49 Romney 48 (not sure why they released two polls showing different results the same day?
New Hampshire 4 electoral votes
Obama has the slight edge here, leading in 4 out of 7 polls in the last week, including the two most recent.
Recent Polls
10/25
New England College Obama 49 Romney 46
Grove Obama 47 Romney 44
10/23
Rassmussen (leans R) Obama 48 Romney 50
American Research Partners Obama 48 Romney 45
UNH Obama 51 Romney 42
PPP (leans D) Obama 48 Romney 49
That leaves Virginia, 13 electoral votes Looks like a tie to me.
The most recent polls are a tie, and then two Romney leads and one Obama lead, with shortly before two Obama leads and one Romney lead.
Recent Polls
10/25
Purple Strategies tie at 47
10/24
Rassmussen (D leaning) Obama 48 Romney 50
Fox News (guess) Obama 44 Romney 46
PPP (d leaning) Obama 51 Romney 46
10/21
Mellman Obama 46 Romney 45
Well it’s obvious Governor Chris Christie is dropping Romney in the grease and looking at a run of his own in 2016.
Stick to law.
I want to take PB Pike to task for making fun of one of John’s use of a quote from great American and defense bar warrior Justice Jess Dickinson. John quoted Dickinson as writing, “you cannot overcome reality.” I just can’t emphasize how true this is. The problem with the libs, dems and other elites is that they just don’t understand the reality of the situation — the Presidential election. I saw yesterday where Ralph Reed said 17 million evangelicals didn’t vote in 2008. This year, with the states fighting the voter fraud and all those God-fearing Christians turning out and cancelling out the minority vote and all the illegals, Romney is going to win the day. He must for the sake of the country. Look, Pike, who do you think has a better version of reality? You or veteran political insiders like George Will, Dick Morris and Michael Barone who all predict a Romney landslide? Regardless of what reality the liberal media and democratic pollsters are projecting. The real truth, that reflected by true-hearted conservatives – is that America is going to stand up and vote out the foreign Pretender BHO. Pike asks for facts well, all us here know the “facts” are manipulated by the lib media, the polls are all skewed and the east coast literati are just selling a narrative. True-hearted conservatives would never do that and know the truth. Obama cannot win because reality would collapse if he did. –V.K. Ratliff
Blah … blah … blah ….. liberal ….. media …. blah …… blah ….. communist …… blah ….. socialist ….blah…..blah…Kenyan President….birther…. blah … blah … end of the world as we know it.
Obama 300+ electoral college votes.
YLHL: Silver says 303. I think he’s right. When the Socialists come to burn down all the churches in Mississippi and eat everyone’s grandchildren, I guess you and I will be to blame. Thank God we will have converted to the euro by then, and our bank deposits will be safe!
What happened to all that Romney enthusiasm? Crickets!!!
It’s the sound a bubble makes when it finally pops.
Reality has collapsed, Pike. At least, VK and Karl Rove’s realities have collapsed. The Fox implosion was a beautiful thing to watch. Where’s that Floyd Pink? I want to give him a big, sloppy kiss.
VK,don’t worry, it’ll be OK!
Anyone up for a post-mortem? Floyd? Anyone?
V.K., when does this reality collapse begin – today, or when Obama’s inaugurated for a second term?
Because I have some financial planning that depends on the exact date.
RSVP – thanks!
Anderson, better start some financial planning now — the Dow dropped over 300 points this morning.
Nothing whatsoever to do with the EU’s slashing its growth forecast, James. It’s the Kenyan’s fault.
… What was grimly amusing, as some folks pointed out, was Wall Street’s assumption that Obama would lose. The Masters of the Universe whose prognostications gave us 2008, evidently haven’t gotten any more numerate. Maybe they’re not making enough money to be smart, and we should cut their taxes.
So the stock market’s gains over the last four years had nothing to do with Obama but this morning’s dip is all his fault.
If the GOP asked me for advice about how to strengthen its performances in national elections — having now failed to receive 50% in 5 of the last 6 popular votes in presidential elections — I’d direct their attention to, among other things, the essay that closes thus:
“. . . A distinguished historian has said that one of the most valuable things about history is that it teaches us how things do not happen. It is precisely this kind of awareness that the paranoid fails to develop. He has a special resistance of his own, of course, to developing such awareness, but circumstances often deprive him of exposure to events that might enlighten him—and in any case he resists enlightenment.
” We are all sufferers from history, but the paranoid is a double sufferer, since he is afflicted not only by the real world, with the rest of us, but by his fantasies as well.”
– Richard J. Hofstadter, “The Paranoid Style in American Politics,” Harper’s Magazine, November 1964
I find it odd that a group that I understand believes in an efficient market– which would, one thought, have priced-in the results of the election yesterday well before tomorrow, given how thoroughly predicted/predictable they were and based on information available to all– can also believe that the market had not priced-in the results based on the polls & etc, but rather, caught flat-footed, tanked this morning when surprised by what occurred.
NMC, one post-mortem is that the country is now clearly a center-left one. With that comes a heap of expectations. The left can only blame conservatives for so long. It’s their government clearly. Yes, there’s still that pesky GOP majority in the house, but that’s governance. I’m looking forward to seeing how the left will govern next term.
As for the conservatives, they are now clearly the minority. Less expectations than the left, but still some. It will be interesting to watch the right post-mortem. The left is already starting to tell the old saw that Romney lost due to the far right. I don’t believe that. The right lost because as usual its campaign was weaker, the populace has moved to the left among others.